Modi government would return to power but with a reduced margin if Lok Sabha elections are held now, says a survey by ABP News – C Voter.
The survey comes at a time the government is facing severe criticism over rising fuel prices, sinking of rupee and allegations of corruption in the Rafale deal. These do not seem to have affected the voter’s choice.
Narendra Modi was still voted to be the ideal Prime Ministerial candidate, though the worrying sign for the BJP is his popularity waning steadily over the last one year by six percent. Last year, Modi garnered 69 percent of the votes. Close to 47 percent of the citizens in the survey felt that the Narendra Modi government should not be given another chance in 2019.
By contrast, the popularity of Congress President Rahul Gandhi jumped six percent since the survey was last conducted in January. His vote share at that time was 28 percent.
The “Desh Ka Mood” survey noted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have secured 276 of the 543 seats, a drop of 60 from the 336 seats with which the ruling alliance won the general elections in 2014.
Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would have won 112 seats.
The survey results predicted a vote share of 38 per cent for NDA and a vote share of 25 per cent for UPA.
Others may bag as many as 155 seats with a vote share of 37 per cent, the survey predicted.
State and region wise:
In Uttar Pradesh, if the UPA forms a mahagatbandhan, it is estimated to win more than half the seats. But without the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, the Congress party could be the biggest loser.
In case of a Congress-SP-BSP alliance, the UPA would win 56 seats, with the NDA only winning 24 seats.
Left alone, the UPA would only secure two seats if contesting alone, with the NDA to get 36 seats, and the BSP-SP alliance would get 42 seats.
If Mayawati opts to fight alone, then the NDA is slated to snatch the lion’s share of 70 seats in UP while Congress may get just two and the Others to get eight in total. BJP had won 71 seats in the previous elections.
For its prediction in Bihar, the ABP-CVoter estimated a close call if the Congress party forms a mahagathbandhan, and if the NDA alliance stays then it will win the maximum number of seats. If LJP and RLSP decide to cobble up an alliance, then NDA may get 22 seats while the UPA may get 18. If the NDA alliance remains intact then it may gather a massive 31 seats leaving the rest 9 for the Opposition parties.
In Maharashtra, if the Shiv Sena joined hands with the BJP and all the other parties contested on their own, the NDA would have secured the state. Things could go the other way around if the Congress aligned with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena does not align with the NDA. If Congress, NCP stitch an alliance and the Shiv Sena opting to contest alone then UPA’s tally may go up to 30 making NDA win 16 seats. Shiv Sena may just end up with 2 seats in this scenario. What if a Cong-NCP vs BJP-Sena battle emerges in Maharashtra? NDA may then win 36 seats while 12 may go to UPA. If all parties fight alone, it would be BJP 22, Sena 7, Cong 11, NCP 8.
The southeren states would pose a tough nut to crack for the NDA as they would not be able to garner a majority. Of the 129 seats in the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, the NDA would have secured 21 seats, with the UPA bagging 32 seats and the regional parties taking up the rest.
Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh would continue to be BJP bastions, with the NDA bagging nine of the 11 seats in Chattisgarh, and 23 of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh.
According to the opinion poll, NDA is seen getting eighteen seats in the 25 seats up for grabs in Rajasthan. The three states continue to remain the strongholds of the saffron party.
About, Odisha (21 seats), the survey notes that BJP is seeking to brighten its prospects in the eastern state where speculations of PM Narendra Modi contesting on a seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are rife. If that happens, BJP is likely to get 13 seats, 6 may go to BJD while Congress may take just two in its kitty.
In the north-eastern states, NDA is likely to get 18 seats out of the stipulated 25. Six are seen going to the UPA.
A landslide victory is predicted for the UPA in Punjab while neighbouring Haryana is seen going the BJP way. The survey says Delhi will be completely swept by the BJP.