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Cases may rise to 50,000 in the next eight days

Although India’s coronavirus trajectory has tapered over the past couple of weeks, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan, Indonesia, and Pakistan. However, compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries, including India, have been flatter so far.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was ten days ago. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise. Still, at the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 50,000 in the next eight days, and strain an already weak health system.

Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases. Gujarat has the second most number of active cases, followed by Madhya Pradesh. Delhi has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Rajasthan. The top five states together account for 69 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 91 percent of all cases.

However, these are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Over the past seven days, West Bengal, Maharashtra, and Gujarat have seen the highest spike in cases among top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 67 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. These three states account for 37 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Indore, and Thane districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 49 percent of new cases over this period. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days include Pune, Kolkata, and Krishna district in Andhra Pradesh.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

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