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The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose by 14 percent over the past two days. This is a faster rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose by 11 percent. India’s corona virus trajectory continues to be steeper compared to  Asian countries like Japan and Indonesia. However, compared to neighbours Bangladesh and Pakistan, the rise in infections is slower in India.

India’s case count is now roughly double what it was twelve days ago. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise. India’s death toll from covid-19 is roughly double of what it was twelve days ago.

Still, at the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 75,000 in the next ten days. If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity and strain an already overburdened health system.

Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.

Gujarat has the second most number of active cases, followed by Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The top five states together account for 72 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 91 percent of all cases.

However, these are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

Over the past seven days, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi have seen the highest spike in cases among the top ten states with most cases. These three states account for 26 percent of all the new active cases in this period. Over the same period, fatalities have surged the most in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. These three states account for 37 percent of all covid-related deaths over the past seven days.

Over the past two days, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Thane, and Pune districts have seen the biggest spike in confirmed cases nationally. These five districts account for 47 percent of new cases over this period. Other districts that have seen a sharp spike over the past two days include Amritsar in Punjab, New Delhi, and Aurangabad in Maharashtra.

Most of India’s hotspots so far have been urban affluent districts, with richer states hit harder than the rest.

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