The 2017 revision of the World Population Prospects published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs has stated that India’s population will surpass that of China around 2024, two years later than the previous estimate, and is projected to hit 1.5 billion in 2030.
The report published on Wednesday said that, with 1.41 billion and 1.34 billion inhabitants respectively, China and India remain the two most populous countries comprising 19 and 18 per cent of the total global population.
“In roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China,” the report stated.
According to the new estimates, in 2024, India and China are expected to have a population of 1.44 billion each. Further, India’s population is projected to keep on growing for several decades leading to a growth of around 1.5 billion in 2030 and approaching 1.66 billion in 2050. On the same time, China’s population is expected to stay stable until the 2030s.
China’s population is expected to witness a huge decline after 2030s. A slight decline eventually may be seen in India’s population in the half century after 2050, leading it to 1.51 billion by 2100, but it will still be the most populous country in the world, the report said.
According to the report, life expectancy at birth in India will be 71 years in 2025-2030, growing to 74.2 years in 2045-2050. The under-five mortality rate is also expected to decline from 32.3 deaths under age five per 1,000 live births in 2025-2030 to 18.6 in 2045-2050.
The report also said that the current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. “With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue , even assuming that fertility level will continue to decline,” it said.
This 2017 revision of World Population Prospects is the 25th round of official UN population estimates and projections. Its 24th round of estimates released in 2015 had stated that the population of India will surpass that of China by 2022.